AJG Trading Desk
R2DPooHQ

Morning Brief

Thursday, April 09, 2026
🔴 BEAR REGIME
Regime: CHOP | Aggression Level: 2/4
AJG Trading Desk · R2DPooHQ Morning Brief
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
1

Watchlist Overview

TickerPriceStageGradeBias
SPY $676.01 Markup C Neutral
QQQ $606.09 Distribution C Neutral
IWM $260.47 Distribution C Neutral
USO $124.58 Accumulation C Neutral
LUNR $23.39 Markup C Neutral
LWLG $8.39 Decline C Neutral
ONDS $9.45 Decline C Neutral
UMAC $12.85 Decline C Neutral
SIDU $3.64 Distribution C Neutral
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
S
Market Sentiment Overview
Shannon Framework: SPY: Markup / Neutral | QQQ: Distribution / Neutral | IWM: Distribution / Neutral
SPY — Markup / Neutral
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 651.06, resistance 677.08, invalidation 675.87. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan
QQQ — Distribution / Neutral
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 578.4001, resistance 609.9, invalidation 605.89. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan
IWM — Distribution / Neutral
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 249.52, resistance 262.27, invalidation 260.44. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan
VIX — Unknown / Neutral
VIX — Unknown / Neutral. See charts for current structure.
Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan
UVXY — Unknown / Neutral
UVXY — Unknown / Neutral. See charts for current structure.
Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
LUNR
C neutral markup 64% conf No clean directional edge yet;
Daily
Chart unavailable
30 Min
Chart unavailable
5 Min
Chart unavailable
Core Take
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 22.04, resistance 25.0, invalidation 23.42. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Weekly Read
Weekly bar bearish: open 23.59, high 25.00, low 22.04, close 23.39. Last bar O=23.585 H=25 L=22.04 C=23.39 V=49204763.
Daily Read
Daily bar bearish: open 24.74, high 25.00, low 23.07, close 23.39. Last bar O=24.74 H=25 L=23.07 C=23.39 V=17999639.
30 Min Read
30-minute bar bullish: open 23.18, high 23.46, low 23.17, close 23.42. Last bar O=23.18 H=23.46 L=23.17 C=23.42 V=1469048.
5 Min Read
5-minute bar bullish: open 23.28, high 23.43, low 23.21, close 23.42. Last bar O=23.28 H=23.43 L=23.21 C=23.42 V=512820.
Key Levels
Support22.04
Resistance25.0
Decision zone22.04 to 25.0
Hard stop23.42
T1 target22.04
T2 target22.04
Invalidation23.42
⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions
Stay measured because regime is chop.
  • Break outside 22.04-25.0 without follow-through
  • Trading Backend health degrades or chart target disappears
  • Macro event risk invalidates pre-event execution
🔴
Action
No clean directional edge yet; respect 22.04-25.00 until a break resolves it.
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
LWLG
C neutral decline 64% conf No clean directional edge yet;
Daily
Chart unavailable
30 Min
Chart unavailable
5 Min
Chart unavailable
Core Take
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 7.6, resistance 9.03, invalidation 8.39. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Weekly Read
Weekly bar bearish: open 8.45, high 9.03, low 7.60, close 8.39. Last bar O=8.45 H=9.03 L=7.6 C=8.39 V=17081051.
Daily Read
Daily bar bearish: open 8.80, high 9.00, low 8.25, close 8.39. Last bar O=8.8 H=9 L=8.25 C=8.39 V=5350154.
30 Min Read
30-minute bar bullish: open 8.38, high 8.50, low 8.36, close 8.39. Last bar O=8.38 H=8.5 L=8.355 C=8.39 V=441234.
5 Min Read
5-minute bar bullish: open 8.38, high 8.41, low 8.36, close 8.39. Last bar O=8.38 H=8.41 L=8.355 C=8.39 V=218129.
Key Levels
Support7.6
Resistance9.03
Decision zone7.6 to 9.03
Hard stop8.39
T1 target7.6
T2 target7.6
Invalidation8.39
⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions
Stay measured because regime is chop.
  • Break outside 7.6-9.03 without follow-through
  • Trading Backend health degrades or chart target disappears
  • Macro event risk invalidates pre-event execution
🔴
Action
No clean directional edge yet; respect 7.60-9.03 until a break resolves it.
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
ONDS
C neutral decline 64% conf No clean directional edge yet;
Daily
Chart unavailable
30 Min
Chart unavailable
5 Min
Chart unavailable
Core Take
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 9.192, resistance 10.37, invalidation 9.47. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Weekly Read
Weekly bar bearish: open 9.63, high 10.37, low 9.19, close 9.45. Last bar O=9.63 H=10.37 L=9.192 C=9.45 V=157107728.
Daily Read
Daily bar bearish: open 10.17, high 10.37, low 9.34, close 9.45. Last bar O=10.17 H=10.37 L=9.34 C=9.45 V=64338142.
30 Min Read
30-minute bar bullish: open 9.38, high 9.50, low 9.38, close 9.47. Last bar O=9.385 H=9.5 L=9.3801 C=9.47 V=3150207.
5 Min Read
5-minute bar bearish: open 9.49, high 9.49, low 9.41, close 9.47. Last bar O=9.49 H=9.495 L=9.41 C=9.47 V=1273127.
Key Levels
Support9.192
Resistance10.37
Decision zone9.192 to 10.37
Hard stop9.47
T1 target9.192
T2 target9.192
Invalidation9.47
⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions
Stay measured because regime is chop.
  • Break outside 9.192-10.37 without follow-through
  • Trading Backend health degrades or chart target disappears
  • Macro event risk invalidates pre-event execution
🔴
Action
No clean directional edge yet; respect 9.19-10.37 until a break resolves it.
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
SIDU
C neutral distribution 64% conf No clean directional edge yet;
Daily
Chart unavailable
30 Min
Chart unavailable
5 Min
Chart unavailable
Core Take
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 2.91, resistance 4.265, invalidation 3.6303. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Weekly Read
Weekly bar bullish: open 3.00, high 4.26, low 2.91, close 3.64. Last bar O=3 H=4.265 L=2.91 C=3.64 V=157043262.
Daily Read
Daily bar bearish: open 4.25, high 4.26, low 3.41, close 3.64. Last bar O=4.25 H=4.265 L=3.41 C=3.64 V=41523137.
30 Min Read
30-minute bar bullish: open 3.50, high 3.71, low 3.49, close 3.63. Last bar O=3.5 H=3.71 L=3.49 C=3.6303 V=2343480.
5 Min Read
5-minute bar bearish: open 3.65, high 3.67, low 3.63, close 3.63. Last bar O=3.655 H=3.67 L=3.63 C=3.6303 V=554397.
Key Levels
Support2.91
Resistance4.265
Decision zone2.91 to 4.265
Hard stop3.6303
T1 target2.91
T2 target2.91
Invalidation3.6303
⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions
Stay measured because regime is chop.
  • Break outside 2.91-4.265 without follow-through
  • Trading Backend health degrades or chart target disappears
  • Macro event risk invalidates pre-event execution
🔴
Action
No clean directional edge yet; respect 2.91-4.26 until a break resolves it.
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
UMAC
C neutral decline 64% conf No clean directional edge yet;
Daily
Chart unavailable
30 Min
Chart unavailable
5 Min
Chart unavailable
Core Take
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 12.33, resistance 14.4, invalidation 12.82. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Weekly Read
Weekly bar bearish: open 13.84, high 14.40, low 12.33, close 12.85. Last bar O=13.84 H=14.4 L=12.33 C=12.85 V=13049273.
Daily Read
Daily bar bearish: open 13.98, high 14.25, low 12.33, close 12.85. Last bar O=13.98 H=14.25 L=12.33 C=12.85 V=4034851.
30 Min Read
30-minute bar bullish: open 12.65, high 12.90, low 12.65, close 12.82. Last bar O=12.65 H=12.9 L=12.65 C=12.82 V=218416.
5 Min Read
5-minute bar bearish: open 12.89, high 12.89, low 12.82, close 12.82. Last bar O=12.89 H=12.89 L=12.82 C=12.82 V=98828.
Key Levels
Support12.33
Resistance14.4
Decision zone12.33 to 14.4
Hard stop12.82
T1 target12.33
T2 target12.33
Invalidation12.82
⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions
Stay measured because regime is chop.
  • Break outside 12.33-14.4 without follow-through
  • Trading Backend health degrades or chart target disappears
  • Macro event risk invalidates pre-event execution
🔴
Action
No clean directional edge yet; respect 12.33-14.40 until a break resolves it.
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
USO
C neutral accumulation 64% conf No clean directional edge yet;
Daily
Chart unavailable
30 Min
Chart unavailable
5 Min
Chart unavailable
Core Take
Trading Backend sees partially_aligned timeframe structure with neutral bias. Support 118.06, resistance 143.98, invalidation 124.44. higher and lower timeframes are not fully synchronized; current price is not badly stretched inside the daily range
Weekly Read
Weekly bar bearish: open 138.50, high 143.98, low 118.06, close 124.58. Last bar O=138.505 H=143.98 L=118.06 C=124.58 V=131701249.
Daily Read
Daily bar bullish: open 119.06, high 125.23, low 118.06, close 124.58. Last bar O=119.055 H=125.23 L=118.06 C=124.58 V=52449284.
30 Min Read
30-minute bar bearish: open 125.11, high 125.12, low 123.85, close 124.44. Last bar O=125.11 H=125.121 L=123.85 C=124.44 V=3412638.
5 Min Read
5-minute bar bearish: open 124.57, high 124.70, low 124.00, close 124.44. Last bar O=124.57 H=124.7 L=124.005 C=124.44 V=806725.
Key Levels
Support118.06
Resistance143.98
Decision zone118.06 to 143.98
Hard stop124.44
T1 target118.06
T2 target118.06
Invalidation124.44
⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions
Stay measured because regime is chop.
  • Break outside 118.06-143.98 without follow-through
  • Trading Backend health degrades or chart target disappears
  • Macro event risk invalidates pre-event execution
🔴
Action
No clean directional edge yet; respect 118.06-143.98 until a break resolves it.
AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
X

Market Pulse — X

Scanner Feed (11 posts from 4 accounts)


  • @2704294333 (848❤ 79↺): US PLAN TO INVOLVE MOVING TROOPS OUT OF NATO MEMBER COUNTRIES DEEMED UNHELPFUL TO IRAN WAR EFFORT, STATION THEM IN SUPPORTIVE COUNTRIES
  • @2704294333 (512❤ 40↺): VANCE: THERE WILL BE NO SANCTIONS RELIEF IF IRAN DEVELOPS NUCLEAR WEAPON
  • @2704294333 (207❤ 26↺): KALSHI’S SURGE: DOMINANCE AND RISING VOLUME BofA’s research highlights a sharp rise in Kalshi’s weekly trading volume over the past year. The platform now holds a 91% share of the U.S. prediction mar
  • @381696140 (75❤ 16↺): Supreme Leader Military Adviser Rezaee: We will punish Israel for attacks on Hezbollah. https://t.co/7sa0MECSgi
  • @381696140 (78❤ 5↺): WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Oil spike will likely be a one-time thing on CPI report. - Fox Business
  • @381696140 (62❤ 9↺): Supreme Leader Military Adviser Rezaee: We're standing with Lebanon's Hezbollah with all might - IRIB
  • @381696140 (57❤ 9↺): Troops would move to countries more supportive of the US campaign against Iran, sources - WSJ.
  • @381696140 (44❤ 10↺): 🔴 Trump Administration may punish some NATO countries for lack of support on Iran, sources - WSJ.
    • Top Posts by Engagement
    @2704294333
    US PLAN TO INVOLVE MOVING TROOPS OUT OF NATO MEMBER COUNTRIES DEEMED UNHELPFUL TO IRAN WAR EFFORT, STATION THEM IN SUPPORTIVE COUNTRIES
    @2704294333
    VANCE: THERE WILL BE NO SANCTIONS RELIEF IF IRAN DEVELOPS NUCLEAR WEAPON
    @2704294333
    KALSHI’S SURGE: DOMINANCE AND RISING VOLUME BofA’s research highlights a sharp rise in Kalshi’s weekly trading volume over the past year. The platform now holds a 91% share of the U.S. prediction market. Notably, Crypto. com’s share exceeds Polymarket’s, according to the same [link]
    @381696140
    Supreme Leader Military Adviser Rezaee: We will punish Israel for attacks on Hezbollah. [link]
    @381696140
    WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Oil spike will likely be a one-time thing on CPI report. - Fox Business
    @381696140
    Supreme Leader Military Adviser Rezaee: We're standing with Lebanon's Hezbollah with all might - IRIB
    @381696140
    Troops would move to countries more supportive of the US campaign against Iran, sources - WSJ.
    @381696140
    🔴 Trump Administration may punish some NATO countries for lack of support on Iran, sources - WSJ.
    @381696140
    Proposal involves moving US troops from countries deemed unhelpful on Iran, sources - WSJ [link]
    @381696140
    MOC Imbalance S&P 500: +2262 mln Nasdaq 100: +1274 mln Dow 30: +736 mln Mag 7: +473 mln
    @381696140
    VP Vance: Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's tweet was interesting.
    AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
    8

    Closing Notes

    SPY$677.08 (Resistance (weekly high))
    Rejection here = range top confirmed, fade opportunity toward $671.46. Breakout above = regime shift signal, but don't chase without follow-through.
    SPY$651.06 (Support (weekly low))
    Break below = distribution confirmed, significant downside opens. Watch for bounce at this level first.
    QQQ$609.90 (Resistance (weekly/daily high))
    Same as SPY — this is the top of the current range. Rejection = short-side lean.
    QQQ$578.40 (Support (weekly low))
    Critical floor for tech. Break = broad market deterioration signal.
    USO$118.06 (Support (weekly/daily low))
    Key oil demand floor. Break = macro risk-off signal with broad market implications.
    ONDS$9.47 (Invalidation / 30-min high)
    Short thesis invalidated above this. Fade zone for sellers.
    UMAC$12.82 (Invalidation / 5-min close)
    Short thesis invalidated above this. Tight pivot level.
    LUNR$22.04 (Support (weekly low))
    Last line of defense for longs. Break = accelerated decline. Bounce here = only long trigger.
    ### 🔴 Primary Risk: Core PCE at 12:30 PM ET
    This is the single largest risk on the board today. Every ticker on this list is in a chop regime with partially aligned timeframes — meaning they are all susceptible to a macro-driven directional break. A hot PCE print (above consensus) could break SPY below $671.46 and QQQ below $602.12 in the first 5 minutes. A cold print could spike both to their weekly highs ($677.08 / $609.90). Any position entered before 12:30 PM carries this binary risk. ### 🟠 Secondary Risk: False Breakout Traps In a chop regime, the most common failure mode is entering a "breakout" that immediately reverses. The regime explicitly flags: avoid breakout_long and gap_and_go_long. All five of the setups above are mean reversion plays — if you find yourself chasing a move away from a level rather than fading into it, you are trading against the regime. ### 🟡 Tertiary Risk: Diverging Volume Signals ONDS, UMAC, SIDU, and LUNR all show volume diverging — meaning price movement is not being confirmed by volume. This is a warning sign that moves in these names may not sustain. Do not hold through a volume-divergent move expecting continuation. ### 🟡 Structural Risk: All C-Grade, No Leaders Zero A or B grade setups on the board. The system is telling you there are no clean leaders today. The temptation to force trades in a C-grade environment is the primary psychological trap. The regime aggression level of 2/4 is a hard cap — if you are sizing like it's a 4/4 day, you are already wrong. ### ⚪ Regime Misalignment: SPY/QQQ Buyers in Control vs. Bearish Daily SPY and QQQ show "buyers in control" on the 30-minute but bearish daily bars. This creates a false sense of bullish momentum intraday. The daily structure has not resolved bullishly — the weekly recovery is real, but the daily pullback is also real. Do not mistake a 30-minute bounce for a trend resumption. ---
    11

    📋 Game Plan

    Priority 1 — Do Not Trade Before 12:30 PM ET Without Explicit Justification Core PCE is a regime-changing event. Any setup entered before the print carries binary macro risk. If you must trade pre-data, size at 25-50% of normal and have your stop defined before entry. No exceptions.

    Priority 2 — Post-12:30 PM: Identify the New Range on SPY/QQQ First After the PCE print, watch SPY $677.08 (resistance) and $671.46 (daily low) as the immediate range. QQQ $609.90 (resistance) and $602.12 (daily low) are the equivalent levels. The first 5-10 minutes post-release are noise — wait for a 5-minute bar to close before making any directional read.

    Priority 3 — If Fading, Use ONDS and UMAC as the Primary Vehicles Of the individual names, ONDS ($9.47 fade level) and UMAC ($12.82 fade level) have the cleanest short-side setups within their ranges. Both have seller control confirmed on weekly and daily. Fade bounces to the invalidation levels with tight stops. Target the weekly lows ($9.19 and $12.33 respectively).

    Priority 4 — Watch USO for the Macro Read USO is the most macro-sensitive name on the list. After the PCE print, USO's reaction will tell you something about the risk-on/risk-off tone. A bounce above $124.44 with volume = risk-on lean. A break below $124.44 = risk-off, which would support the short-side setups in ONDS and UMAC.

    Priority 5 — Avoid SIDU and LUNR Unless Levels Are Perfectly Respected Both names have volume divergence and wide ranges. SIDU's invalidation at $3.6303 is extremely tight — one bad tick and you're stopped. LUNR's daily structure is bearish despite the markup stage label. These are the lowest-priority setups on the board. If you're looking for something to cut from the list, start here.

    Priority 6 — Size at Regime Aggression Level 2/4 Across the Board Maximum position size today is half of your normal allocation. No single name deserves full size in a C-grade, chop-regime, pre-PCE environment. If a setup triggers perfectly post-data and the structure is clean, you can scale to 75% — but 100% sizing is not justified by anything on this watchlist today.

    Priority 7 — If the Thesis Breaks, Exit Immediately and Reassess The invalidation levels are specific and non-negotiable: SPY $675.87, QQQ $605.89, IWM $260.44, ONDS $9.47, UMAC $12.82, LUNR $23.42, SIDU $3.6303. If price closes a 5-minute bar through your invalidation level, the setup is dead. Do not average down. Do not wait for a recovery. Exit, reassess the new structure, and wait for the next clean level.

    ---

    *Report generated for AJG Trading Desk | Thursday, April 09, 2026 | Pre-market | All levels sourced from Tier 2 KB-injected deep analysis. This report is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.*

    AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026
    A

    Methodology

    1 Pipeline Architecture

    This report is produced by an automated multi-stage analytical pipeline. No human discretion is applied during generation — the system follows a deterministic, rule-based process.

    Scanner→ Trading Backend→ Backend-Native Analysis→ Synthesizer→ PDF Renderer
    • Scanner — Pulls the active focus watchlist and retrieves current market data.
    • Trading Backend — Reads live TradingView Desktop state over CDP and writes structured multi-timeframe artifacts.
    • Backend-Native Analysis — Derives doctrine/tier analysis JSON directly from Trading Backend OHLCV/timeframe state.
    • Synthesizer — Aggregates all analyses plus broad sentiment into a unified regime classification and report.

    2 Shannon Grading System

    Each ticker receives a composite grade (A+ through F) reflecting setup quality — not directional prediction. Factors: stage identification, timeframe alignment, trend quality, volume pattern, key level positioning, and risk clarity.

    GradeCriteriaPosition Sizing
    A+ / AAll factors aligned, clean structure, strong volumeFull / near-full position
    B+ / BGood structure, most factors aligned, minor concernsStandard / reduced position
    CMixed signals, partial alignment, choppy structureWatchlist — selective entries only
    FNo setup, opposing timeframes, broken structureNo trade — avoid

    3 Featured Selection & Regime

    All tickers graded B- or better receive full chart review. All tickers appear in the watchlist table. Regime classification (Bull/Bear/Transitional) is determined by breadth, index structure, volatility regime, sector rotation, and cross-asset signals.

    This report features 6 tickers: LUNR, LWLG, ONDS, SIDU, UMAC, USO.

    AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Thursday, April 09, 2026

    4 Technical Stack

    • Analyst Model: N/A
    • Tickers Analyzed: 12
    • Avg Confidence: 64%
    • Synthesizer: Claude Sonnet 4.6
    • Charts: TradingView (extended hours), Playwright 1920×1200
    • PDF: Playwright page.pdf(), Letter format

    Frameworks matched:

    • Mean Reversion
    • NONE
    ⚠ Disclaimer: This report is generated by an automated system for internal desk use only. It does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation of any kind. All analysis is based on historical price action and technical chart patterns — past performance does not predict future results. Grades reflect setup quality, not guaranteed outcomes. Always apply independent risk management. Trade at your own risk.
    AJG Trading Desk · R2DPooHQ · Thursday, April 09, 2026