AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

1

Watchlist Overview

Ticker	Price	Stage	Grade	Bias
USO	$124.20	Markup	A	Bullish
U	$21.94	Markup (counter-trend)	A	Bullish
LUNR	$18.56	Markup (counter-trend)	B+	Bullish
IWM	$242.25–$250.29	Distribution	C	Neutral
SPY	$650.34	Distribution	C	Neutral
QQQ	~$560–$582	Distribution	C	Neutral
ETHA	$15.83	Accumulation (range)	C	Neutral
AMZU	$27.38	Decline (dead-cat)	C	Neutral
RKLB	$64.22	Distribution	C	Bearish
MSTR	$124.80	Decline	F	Bearish
BE	$135.49	Decline	F	Bearish
ONDS	$9.04	Decline	F	Bearish
TSLL	$12.15	Decline	F	Bearish
LWLG	$7.03	Distribution	F	Bearish
UMAC	$12.40	Decline	F	Bearish
PLTU	~$40–$46	Decline	F	Bearish
IREN	~$31–$35	Decline	F	Bearish

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

S

Market Sentiment Overview

Brian Shannon Framework — Broad Market

All three major indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM) are in confirmed Stage 3→4 distribution. Price is below declining EMAs, rallies are being sold, and VIX remains elevated. Regime: BEAR. Bias: favor short continuation, fade gap-ups, avoid breakout longs until weekly structure repairs.

SPY — Bearish Distribution / Stage 3→4

SPY broke its Stage 2 uptrend on heavy volume and is now in confirmed distribution. Price is below all key EMAs (21/50/200-day) and each rally is being sold into. Shannon framework: Stage 3 distribution transitioning to Stage 4 decline. Do NOT buy di

WEEKLY

DAILY

30MIN

5MIN

QQQ — Bearish Distribution / Stage 3→4

QQQ mirrors SPY but with higher beta — tech is leading the selloff. The weekly chart shows a clean break of the multi-month trendline with expanding volume on down weeks. Shannon: Stage 3 distribution with no reversal signal. Avoid longs until weekly

WEEKLY

DAILY

30MIN

5MIN

IWM — Weakest of the Three / Stage 4 Decline

Small caps have been in Stage 4 decline longer than SPY/QQQ — they led the breakdown and have not bounced. IWM is printing lower highs and lower lows on the weekly. Shannon: Confirmed Stage 4. This index is the risk-on barometer — its failure confirm

WEEKLY

DAILY

30MIN

5MIN

VIX — Elevated / Fear Regime

VIX is elevated and trending higher — each market bounce compresses VIX only temporarily before it spikes again. Elevated VIX means options are expensive: avoid buying premium. Shannon framework does not apply directly to VIX but structurally: rising

Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan

UVXY — Trending / Volatility Amplifier

UVXY is making higher lows as VIX stays elevated — this confirms sustained fear, not a single-day spike. Traders holding UVXY are being rewarded, which historically means the bear trend has more room. Watch for UVXY to roll over on a VIX compression

Charts not available — ticker not in today's watchlist scan

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

U

A bullish markup 85% conf TACTICAL ONLY given BEAR regim

Daily

30 Min

5 Min

Core Take

Unity Software printed a massive +12.80% weekly candle closing at $21.94 on 63.61M shares — the highest weekly volume in years — after bouncing off the $16-17 zone that represents multi-year lows going back to pre-2022 levels. The daily shows a strong bullish engulfing candle breaking above the $21.94 pivot on 30.92M shares, and premarket is holding $22.23, suggesting follow-through interest. The 30m and 5m charts show price consolidating tightly just below $22.45 resistance after the sharp move

Weekly Read

The weekly chart shows U in a catastrophic multi-year decline from $220 (2021) to $16 (early 2026) — this is a Stage 4 stock by any honest measure. The current week printed a massive reversal candle closing at $21.94 on 63.61M shares, the largest weekly volume since the 2021 peak. This is a significant capitulation/reversal signal at multi-year support, but one week does not change the macro stage. The stock needs multiple weeks of constructive price action above $21.94 before any trend-hold thesis is valid.

Daily Read

The daily shows a clean bullish engulfing candle on March 31 breaking above $21.94 on 30.92M shares — the highest daily volume in months. Price opened at $20.70, hit $22.46, and closed at $21.94, confirming buyers absorbed the entire range. Premarket April 1 is holding $22.23, above the close. The $21.94 level is now the critical support — it was prior resistance and the close of the breakout candle. Below $21.94 on a daily close, the thesis is dead. There is no clean EMA stack yet; the stock is just beginning to reclaim shorter-term averages.

30 Min Read

The 30m chart shows the sharp move from $20.50 to $22.45 on March 31 followed by a tight consolidation range of $22.00-$22.45 with volume declining — textbook flag/shelf behavior. The $22.23 level (current premarket) is mid-range. The $22.45 level is the clear resistance cap from the March 31 high. A sustained hold above $22.00 with a break above $22.45 on volume would be the continuation trigger. A break below $22.00 on the 30m would signal the bounce is exhausting.

5 Min Read

The 5m chart shows price coiling tightly between $22.20-$22.25 with extremely low volume (268 last bar) — this is pre-open accumulation or indecision. The cleanest entry would be either: (1) a pullback to $22.00-$22.10 with a bounce candle and volume confirmation, or (2) a breakout above $22.45 with a 5m close above that level on volume. Entering into the current coil at $22.23 is chasing the middle of the range with no edge. Wait for resolution.

Key Levels

Entry trigger	$22.45 — 5m close above with volume expansion, OR pullback to $22.00-$22.10 with bounce candle
Decision zone	$22.00-$22.45 — current consolidation range; price is mid-range and offers no edge until it resolves
Hard stop	$21.80 intraday / $21.94 daily close — below the breakout candle close invalidates the bounce thesis entirely
T1 target	$23.00 — take half; prior intraday resistance area and round number, ~$0.55-$0.95 gain depending on entry
T2 target	$23.50 — runner only; next visible resistance zone on daily, only hold if market is cooperating
Invalidation	Daily close below $21.94 — kills the breakout candle and signals the bounce failed; no thesis remains

⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions

The trap here is that the chart looks explosive and the automated scan graded it A with 85% confidence — that creates emotional pull to treat this as a high-conviction swing trade. It is not. This is a violent bounce in a Stage 4 stock during a BEAR regime. Traders get hurt here by sizing up because

If the broad market (SPY/QQQ) opens weak or sells off in the first 30 minutes — do not fight the regime with a counter-trend long in a BEAR tape
If U gaps up above $22.45 at open without a clean pullback — the entry is chased and the R/R is broken; skip or wait for a base to form
If the $22.00 support level breaks on the 30m with volume before a clean entry trigger forms — the consolidation is failing and the bounce is likely done

🟢

Action

Enter long with stop below $21.94. Target $22.45 initially, then trail stop as momentum confirms. This is a trend-hold setup with room to run.

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

USO

A bullish markup 85% conf

Daily

30 Min

5 Min

Weekly Read

Strong breakout above multi-year resistance near 120, volume surge confirms institutional participation. Trend is accelerating after long consolidation.

Daily Read

Price is testing all-time high at 130.93 with strong momentum. Pullbacks are shallow and volume remains elevated, indicating strong sponsorship.

30 Min Read

Clean higher highs and higher lows within a tight channel. Price is respecting rising 30min VWAP and showing no signs of exhaustion.

5 Min Read

Tight consolidation near 124.75 after sharp move up. Volume is thin but not declining, suggesting accumulation before next leg.

🟢

Action

Enter long with stop below 124.20. Target 130.93 breakout with potential extension to 135 if volume holds. Hold for trend continuation.

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

LUNR

B+ bullish markup 75% conf COUNTER-TREND LONG

Daily

30 Min

5 Min

Core Take

LUNR printed a strong +13.52% day on 13M volume, reclaiming the 18.00 area and closing at 18.56, now testing the 19.00-19.10 resistance zone in premarket at 19.10. The daily structure is genuinely constructive — price is above EMA20 (18.24) and EMA50 (17.70), and the move off the late-March low near 15.85 has been clean with expanding volume. However, this is a counter-trend long in a declared BEAR regime, which means the burden of proof is higher and position sizing must reflect that. The 19.10

Weekly Read

The weekly chart shows LUNR in a massive long-term base after the 2023 spike to ~$40+ and subsequent multi-year decline. The current move is a recovery from the 2024-2025 lows, and price is now pressing into the $18-19 zone which represents a meaningful weekly resistance cluster. Volume on the current weekly bar (26.16M) is the largest in recent history outside of the 2023 spike, which is notable sponsorship. The big picture says this is a stock attempting a Stage 1 to Stage 2 transition on the weekly — not yet confirmed, and the $19-20 zone is the key test.

Daily Read

LUNR closed at 18.56 on 13.01M volume, a +13.52% day that reclaimed the 18.00 resistance level cleanly. EMA20 at 18.24 and EMA50 at 17.70 are both below price and rising, with EMA200 at 14.35 far below — the EMA stack is bullish. The Bollinger Band upper at 20.17 gives room to the upside before the next squeeze. The key daily resistance is the 19.10-19.50 zone visible on the chart as prior consolidation from February-March 2026. A daily close above 19.10 would be a meaningful structural confirmation; a daily close back below 18.00 would be a serious warning.

30 Min Read

The 30m chart shows a textbook recovery structure from the 3/31 lows — a sharp drop to ~16.00, a base, then a clean staircase rally with higher lows and higher highs. The 30m EMA200 at 18.27 is now acting as near-term support rather than resistance, which is a bullish flip. Price is consolidating in the 18.90-19.13 range on the 30m, which is the decision zone. Confirmation on the 30m requires a clean break and hold above 19.10 with a volume bar that exceeds the recent 30m average — the current 4.92K volume bar is the reference.

5 Min Read

The 5m chart is in premarket with very thin volume (47 shares), so no execution read is valid yet. What the 5m shows is that price has rallied cleanly into the 19.09 level and is sitting right at the red dotted resistance line. The entry trigger for RTH is a 5m candle that closes above 19.10 with volume at least 2-3x the recent 5m average, followed by a pullback that holds above 18.90 on lower volume. A failed push — meaning a 5m candle that spikes above 19.10 but closes back below it — is an immediate pass and potential short signal in this regime.

Key Levels

Entry trigger	19.10 — 5m candle close above this level with RTH volume expansion; not a premarket print
Decision zone	18.90-19.10 — current consolidation range; price must resolve this zone with conviction to justify entry
Hard stop	18.00 — prior resistance now support; loss of this level on a daily close invalidates the breakout thesis entirely
T1 target	19.80-20.00 — prior consolidation zone from Feb-Mar 2026; take half position here
T2 target	20.17 (BB upper) to 20.50 — only valid if daily structure holds above 19.10 and regime improves; runner only
Invalidation	Daily close below 18.00 — this would confirm the breakout failed and the prior resistance zone rejected price

⚠️ Psychology & Pass Conditions

The trap here is that LUNR had a genuinely impressive day and the chart looks clean — which makes it feel like a must-own. Scoob's long-side momentum bias will want to buy this because it moved well yesterday and premarket is showing 19.10. That is exactly the failure mode: confusing a good stock wi

Price fails to clear 19.10 on the first RTH push and prints a 5m rejection candle (long upper wick, close back below 19.00) — this is a short signal in bear regime, not a buy-the-dip
Market opens with broad selling pressure and SPY/QQQ are gapping down hard — LUNR's individual strength does not override a hostile macro tape in a BEAR regime
Volume on the 19.10 breakout attempt is weak (below 30m average) — a low-volume push into resistance in a bear regime is a trap, not a trigger

🟢

Action

Enter with tight stop below 17.80. Scale out partial position at 19.10 resistance. Only add to position if price clears 19.10 with strong volume and holds above 18.80.

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

X

Market Pulse — X

MARKET PULSE REPORT

OVERALL SENTIMENT: Bullish. The dominant narrative revolves around a risk-on Q2 kickoff, driven by perceived de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and a resulting relief rally.

KEY THEMES:

Geopolitical De-escalation: A perceived cooling of tensions between Iran and the US is driving optimism and lifting stock futures.

Risk-On Rotation: Traders are anticipating a shift towards higher-risk assets, particularly in the tech and banking sectors.

Technical Breakouts: $IWM and potentially $NQ are showing bullish technical patterns, adding to the positive sentiment.

"Rallies on Hope are Rented": Some are warning that short-term reliefs might be short lived

STANDOUT POSTS:

"@SethCL [7L 0RT]: There are 4 Steps to a Bottoming Process: 1. Oversold conditions presented 2. Rally (quality matters) 3. Retesting low (not always, usually) 4. Breadth Thrusts (4 or more)... $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $DIA $NDX". This provides a structured framework for assessing the potential for a market bottom.

"@GridironEdgeX [0L 0RT]: THIS RALLY KICKS OFF Q2 RISK-ON. Tech/chips and banks lead -- $NVDA $AMD $SMH ripping, $XLF $JPM surging. Energy dumps as oil slips under $100. $SPY $QQQ gap up and hold -- broad melt-up today.[[3](https://t.co/tfB12YScWZ)]" This succinctly captures the anticipated market rotation and sector leadership expected for the day.

"@MonT_Macro [0L 0RT]: 🚨 Scanner ping. NQ futures at 24,071.75 (+0.5%) — knocking on R1 24,011, the level the Desk flagged Sunday. Less than 0.25% away inside a confirmed death cross. The agents note: oversold bounce meets overhead structure. Worth watching closely. $NQ_F $QQQ #FinTwit #MacroAgentDesk". This highlights a crucial resistance level for $NQ and provides a balanced view, acknowledging both the oversold bounce and the potential for overhead supply.

"@marketgeniusx [0L 0RT]: @zerohedge $SPY rallied 2.9% yesterday on "Iran peace talks" while the Financial Conditions Index hit 99.17, the tightest since June 2025. The last two 2%+ relief rallies during this war (March 14, March 24) both gave back the gains within 3 sessions. Rallies on hope are rented." This serves as a caution against getting overly optimistic about the rally, pointing out the possible historical precedent of relief rallies not sustaining themselves and highlights macro conditions .

"@OSTradez [0L 0RT]: $IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) Broke above the 200-day MA, held it as support, and closed with strength. This is a bullish structural shift. Verdict: A buy for a swing trade, targeting a move toward the 212-215 zone." This highlights a potentially significant breakout pattern, providing a specific trading idea for the Russell 2000.

NOISE TO IGNORE:

Filter out overly simplistic "stock futures are green" pronouncements and generic promotional posts for trading discords. Focus on narratives with a clear rationale or data-backed analysis.

Closing Notes

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

A

Methodology

1 Pipeline Architecture

This report is produced by an automated multi-stage analytical pipeline. No human discretion is applied during generation — the system follows a deterministic, rule-based process.

Scanner→ Chart Capture→ Multi-TF Analyst→ Synthesizer→ PDF Renderer

Scanner — Pulls the active focus watchlist and retrieves current market data.
Chart Capture — Headless Chromium renders TradingView charts across 4 timeframes (W/D/30m/5m) with extended hours enabled.
Multi-TF Analyst — Vision-language model evaluates each ticker's charts independently, then assesses cross-timeframe alignment.
Synthesizer — Aggregates all analyses plus broad sentiment into a unified regime classification and report.

2 Shannon Grading System

Each ticker receives a composite grade (A+ through F) reflecting setup quality — not directional prediction. Factors: stage identification, timeframe alignment, trend quality, volume pattern, key level positioning, and risk clarity.

Grade	Criteria	Position Sizing
A+ / A	All factors aligned, clean structure, strong volume	Full / near-full position
B+ / B	Good structure, most factors aligned, minor concerns	Standard / reduced position
C	Mixed signals, partial alignment, choppy structure	Watchlist — selective entries only
F	No setup, opposing timeframes, broken structure	No trade — avoid

3 Featured Selection & Regime

All tickers graded B- or better receive full chart review. All tickers appear in the watchlist table. Regime classification (Bull/Bear/Transitional) is determined by breadth, index structure, volatility regime, sector rotation, and cross-asset signals.

This report features 3 tickers: U, USO, LUNR.

AJG Trading Desk — Morning Brief Wednesday, April 01, 2026

4 Technical Stack

Analyst Model: qwen/qwen3-vl-235b-a22b-instruct
Tickers Analyzed: 18
Avg Confidence: 80%
Synthesizer: Claude Sonnet 4.6
Charts: TradingView (extended hours), Playwright 1920×1200
PDF: Playwright page.pdf(), Letter format

Frameworks matched:

Multi-Timeframe Analysis - Decline Stage Protocol
Multi-Timeframe Analysis - Range-Bound Tape Protocol
Multi-Timeframe Analysis with Price-First Read
Multi-Timeframe Analysis with Range-Bound Context Filter
Multi-Timeframe Breakdown Framework
Multi-Timeframe Breakout Framework
Multi-Timeframe Breakout with Anchored Control
Multi-Timeframe Breakout with Anchored VWAP Confirmation
Multi-Timeframe Decline Framework
Multi-Timeframe Distribution Framework
Multi-Timeframe Range Compression Framework
Shannon Chart Review Checklist

⚠ Disclaimer: This report is generated by an automated system for internal desk use only. It does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation of any kind. All analysis is based on historical price action and technical chart patterns — past performance does not predict future results. Grades reflect setup quality, not guaranteed outcomes. Always apply independent risk management. Trade at your own risk.